Recent SEP stats

Dot Detective(my guess)

Sellside Projection (as of 04/11/2024)

Institution First cut Cuts in 2024 Publish date
Bank of America December 25 BPS 4/12/2024
Barclays September 25 BPS 4/10/2024
BNPP July 50 BPS 4/10/2024
Citigroup June 125 BPS 1/12/2024
Deutsche Bank December 25 BPS 4/11/2024
Evercore ISI July 50 BPS 4/11/2024
Goldman Sachs July 50 BPS 4/10/2024
HSBC June 75 BPS 12/17/2023
Jefferies June 75 BPS 2/12/2024
JP Morgan July 75 BPS 4/5/2024
LH Meyer September 50 BPS 4/10/2024
Mizuho Not 2024 0 BPS 12/5/2023
Morgan Stanley June 100 BPS 11/12/2023
MUFG June 125 BPS 4/1/2024
Nomura July 50 BPS 3/15/2024
Oxford Economics June 75 BPS 3/14/2024
RBC December 25 BPS 4/10/2024
TD Securities September 50 BPS 4/10/2024
UBS September 50 BPS 4/10/2024
Wells Fargo September 25 BPS 4/11/2024

Detailed SEP stats

Common q: When are the projections collected? Source

Initial projections are due by the end of the day on the Friday before the FOMC meeting. Policymakers may revise their projections at any time until the evening of the first day of the meeting. Once the projections are finalized, the charts and figures are assembled for public release.

BUT according to the press conference of the Dec 2023 meeting(Page 19), Participants are allowed to update till “mid to late morning” on the second day of the meeting. Here’s the quote:

“CHAIR POWELL: Right. So we got—we got CPI the morning of the first day, and we got PPI the next day, which informs the, you know, the translation into PCE [inflation]. So it’s very late in the game, you know, to—but nonetheless, participants are allowed to, encouraged to update their SEP forecast until probably midmorning today. After that, so staff has to—has to cumulate all of that and create the documents that you see. So until about midmorning, a little, maybe late morning, it’s okay to update, and I believe some people did update their forecast based on what we saw today.”

Federal funds rate 2023 2024 2025 2026 Longer run
Dec 2023 5.4 4.6 3.6 2.9 2.5
Sep 2023 5.6 5.1 3.9 2.9 2.5
June 2023 5.6 4.6 3.4   2.5
Mar 2023 5.1 4.3 3.1   2.5
Dec 2022 5.1 4.1 3.1   2.5
Core PCE inflation 2023 2024 2025 2026 Longer run
Dec 2023 3.2 2.4 2.2 2  
Sep 2023 3.7 2.6 2.3 2  
June 2023 3.9 2.6 2.2    
Mar 2023 3.6 2.6 2.1    
Dec 2022 3.5 2.5 2.1    
PCE inflation 2023 2024 2025 2026 Longer run
Dec 2023 2.8 2.4 2.1 2 2
Sep 2023 3.3 2.5 2.2 2 2
June 2023 3.2 2.5 2.1   2
Mar 2023 3.3 2.5 2.1   2
Dec 2022 3.3 2.5 2.1   2
Unemployment rate 2023 2024 2025 2026 Longer run
Dec 2023 3.8 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.1
Sep 2023 3.8 4.1 4.1 4 4
June 2023 4.1 4.5 4.5   4
Mar 2023 4.5 4.6 4.6   4
Dec 2022 4.6 4.6 4.5   4
Change in real GDP 2023 2024 2025 2026 Longer run
Dec 2023 2.6 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8
Sep 2023 2.1 1.5 1.8 1.8 1.8
June 2023 1 1.1 1.8   1.8
Mar 2023 0.4 1.2 1.9   1.8
Dec 2022 0.5 1.6 1.8   1.8

Recent Presser Transcripts

Year Meeting Date Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/12/13 Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/11/01 Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/09/20 Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/07/26 Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/06/14 Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/05/03 Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/03/22 Link
2023 FOMC Press Conference - 2023/02/01 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/12/14 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/11/02 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/09/21 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/07/27 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/06/15 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/05/04 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/03/16 Link
2022 FOMC Press Conference - 2022/01/26 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/12/15 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/11/03 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/09/22 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/07/28 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/06/16 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/04/28 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/03/17 Link
2021 FOMC Press Conference - 2021/01/27 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/12/16 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/11/05 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/09/16 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/07/29 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/06/10 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/04/29 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/03/15 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/03/03 Link
2020 FOMC Press Conference - 2020/01/29 Link

Next PD question update: The next release is scheduled at 12:00 PM ET, January 12, 2024
Next refunding estimates update: The next release is scheduled for 3:00 PM ET, January 29, 2024
Next policy statement & TBAC update: The next release is scheduled for 8:30 PM ET, January 31, 2024

TBAC pre + charge questions Link
TBAC Presentation Q121 Link
TBAC Presentation Q221 Link
TBAC Presentation Q321 Link
TBAC Presentation Q421 Link
TBAC Presentation Q122 Link
TBAC Presentation Q222 Link
TBAC Presentation Q322 Link
TBAC Presentation Q422 Link
TBAC Presentation Q123 Link
TBAC Presentation Q223 Link
TBAC Presentation Q323 Link
TBAC Presentation Q423 Link

Primary Dealer Holdings update (Every Thursday at 4:15pm ET)

H.4.1 update (Every Thursday at 4:30pm ET)

H.8 update (every Friday at 4:15pm ET)

Fed APIs