For better formatting and the links to minutes, check out the Original Substack Post.

Results:

Nov 05, 2020: “Many participants judged that the Committee might want to enhance its guidance for asset purchases fairly soon.”

Next meeting action: Continued support of the economy with asset purchase program maintenance and keeping the federal funds rate at near-zero levels.

Nov 08, 2018 (2nd occurrence): “Consistent with their judgment that a gradual approach to policy normalization remained appropriate, almost all participants expressed the view that another increase in the target range for the federal funds rate was likely to be warranted fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations.”

Next meeting action: Interest rate hike in December 2018 to 2.25%-2.5% range.

Nov 08, 2018 (1st occurrence): “Following the Desk briefings, the Chairman noted the upward trend in the EFFR relative to the IOER rate over the intermeeting period and suggested that it might be appropriate to implement another technical adjustment in the IOER rate relative to the top of the target range for the federal funds rate fairly soon.”

Next meeting action: Same as for the second occurrence on Nov 08, 2018, with the rate hike in December 2018.

Aug 01, 2018: “They agreed that the statement’s language that ‘the stance of monetary policy remains accommodative’ would, at some point fairly soon, no longer be appropriate.”

Next meeting action: In September 2018, the Federal Reserve removed the term “accommodative” from its statement, signaling a shift towards a neutral monetary policy stance. This change reflected the Fed’s assessment that the economy was strong enough to grow without the need for low interest rates designed to stimulate economic activity.

Mar 15, 2017: “Subsequently, investors took note of the mention in the minutes of the January – February FOMC meeting that many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations or if the risks of overshooting the Committee’s maximum-employment and inflation objectives increased.”

Next meeting action: Interest rates raised in March 2017.

Feb 01, 2017: “In discussing the outlook for monetary policy over the period ahead, many participants expressed the view that it might be appropriate to raise the federal funds rate again fairly soon if incoming information on the labor market and inflation was in line with or stronger than their current expectations or if the risks of overshooting the Committee’s maximum-employment and inflation objectives increased.”

Next meeting action: At the March 2017 Federal Reserve meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) decided to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, from 0.75-1.00% to 1.00-1.25%. This decision was made in response to continued economic growth, strong job gains, and rising inflation.

Jan 27, 2016: “Previous communications had indicated that the Committee intended to allow aggregate capacity of the ON RRP facility to be temporarily elevated at policy implementation and expected that it would be appropriate to reduce capacity fairly soon thereafter.”

Next meeting action: Scaling back the ON RRP facility capacity in the following months.

Mar 18, 2015 (2nd occurrence): “The Committee expects that it will be appropriate to reduce the capacity of the facility fairly soon after it commences policy firming.”

Next meeting action: Initiation of interest rate increases in December 2015, marking the beginning of policy firming with adjustments to the RRP facility.

Mar 18, 2015 (1st occurrence): “Against this backdrop, participants generally saw some advantages to a temporarily elevated aggregate cap or a temporary suspension of the cap to ensure that the facility would have sufficient capacity to support policy implementation at the time of liftoff, but they also indicated that they expected that it would be appropriate to reduce ON RRP capacity fairly soon after the Committee begins firming the stance of policy.”

Next meeting action: Similar to the second occurrence on the same date, with policy tightening beginning in December 2015.

Jan 28, 2015: “Some participants noted that a relatively high cap could be established and then reduced fairly soon after the initial policy firming if it was determined that it was not needed, and that such a reduction could help underscore the Committee’s intent to use such a facility only to the extent necessary.”

Next meeting action: Gradual tightening of monetary policy, leading to an interest rate hike in December 2015.

Aug 01, 2012: “Many members judged that additional monetary accommodation would likely be warranted fairly soon unless incoming information pointed to a substantial and sustainable strengthening in the pace of the economic recovery.”

Next meeting action: Launch of Quantitative Easing round three (QE3) in September 2012.

May 3, 2005: “Some members commented that this greater uncertainty called for eliminating or paring back forward-looking language from the statement-if not at this meeting, then fairly soon.”

Next meeting action: Continued series of interest rate hikes in subsequent meetings.

June 30, 1999: “Some of these members were concerned that retention of asymmetry might be interpreted as an indication that the Committee was relatively certain that it would need to take further tightening action fairly soon, a view that tended to be reinforced by the behavior of expectations in the period after the announcement of a shift to asymmetry at the May meeting.”

Next meeting action: Increase in the federal funds rate in subsequent meetings, reflecting a tightening of monetary policy.